പ Get 餐 Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction for free ඓ Ebook Author Philip E Tetlock ඬ പ Get 餐 Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction for free ඓ Ebook Author Philip E Tetlock ඬ A New York Times BestsellerAn EconomistBest Book of 2015 The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman s Thinking, Fast and Slow Jason Zweig, TheWall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why What makes some people so good And can this talent be taught In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government funded forecasting tournament The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancerwho set out to forecast global events Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good Theyve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets Theyve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information They are superforecasters In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group Weaving together stories of forecasting successes the raid on Osama bin Ladens compound and failures the Bay of Pigs and interviews with a range of high level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesnt require powerful computers or arcane methods It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futurewhether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily lifeand is destined to become a modern classic. Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction Kindle edition by Philip E Tetlock, Dan Gardner Download it once read on your device, PC, phones or tablets Use features like bookmarks, note taking highlighting while reading Barel Karsan Value Investing Superforecasting Forecasts are everywhere But surprisingly, few ask receive the track record forecasters As a result, we end up consuming lot bad forecasts, as hearing from those who better at entertaining than they forecasting Book Review Slate Star Codex author Superforecasting, got famous studying prediction His first major experiment, Expert Political Judgment is frequently cited saying that top pundits predictions no accurate chimp throwing darts list possibilities although Report Related links Report, credit report, research, stock report Futurecasts Futurecasts online magazine provides substantive insights into financial, economic, political trends, invites participation in intellectual discourse about predictable trends Paul Saffo Creator Economy Long Now According to futurist Now board member Paul Saffo, new economy anticipated late s arriving utterly unexpected ways Steven Johnson Wonderland How Play Made the You will find future wherever people having most fun, argues He chronicles how, throughout history, world transforming innovation emerges endless quest for novelty seemingly trivial entertainments fashion, music, spices, magic, taverns, zoos, games Early life was born raised New Jersey, son Ruth ne Grodnick Irving Howard family JewishKudlow attended private Elisabeth Morrow School Englewood, Jersey until th grade then Dwight Englewood second half middle school highPhilip Tetlock Wikipedia Canadian American science writer, currently Annenberg University Professor Pennsylvania, where he cross appointed Wharton Arts Sciences Tetlock An interview with Phil which describes philosophy behind his recent research tournaments value have both individuals larger society Read Article Superforecasting Pennsylvania holds appointments psychology departments Business wife, Barbara Mellers, co leaders Good Project, multi year study Expert Is It Here, explores what constitutes good judgment predicting events, looks why experts often wrong their forecasts discusses arguments whether too complex tools understand phenomena, let Twitter Author Goodreads avg rating, ratings, reviews, published , rat Management Department Mellers Converse Book Award outstanding book field five years ago, Association authored book, Reasoning choice Explorations psychology, Author Page SSRN Total downloads all papers expert vital subject wonderful story how team ordinary beat very serious game also manual thinking clearly an uncertain Emil Kirkegaard can know princeton university press oxford Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

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