‿ Easy reader ⇔ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction  ⁗ Book Author Philip E Tetlock ₇ ‿ Easy reader ⇔ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ⁗ Book Author Philip E Tetlock ₇ A New York Times BestsellerAn EconomistBest Book of 2015 The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman s Thinking, Fast and Slow Jason Zweig, TheWall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why What makes some people so good And can this talent be taught In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government funded forecasting tournament The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancerwho set out to forecast global events Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good Theyve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets Theyve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information They are superforecasters In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group Weaving together stories of forecasting successes the raid on Osama bin Ladens compound and failures the Bay of Pigs and interviews with a range of high level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesnt require powerful computers or arcane methods It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futurewhether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily lifeand is destined to become a modern classic. Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction A New York Times Editors Choice Washington Post Bestseller Hudson Booksellers Best Business Interest Book Longlisted for the Financial McKinsey Year Award Winner Axiom in Theory Gold Medal Superforecasting Kindle edition by Philip E Tetlock, Dan Gardner Download it once read on your device, PC, phones or tablets Use features like bookmarks, note taking highlighting while reading Barel Karsan Value Investing Superforecasting Forecasts are everywhere But surprisingly, few ask receive track record forecasters As a result, we end up consuming lot bad forecasts, as hearing from those who better at entertaining than they forecasting Report Related links Report, credit report, research, stock report Futurecasts Futurecasts online magazine provides substantive insights into financial, economic, political trends, invites participation intellectual discourse about predictable trends Paul Saffo Creator Economy Long Now According to futurist Now board member Paul Saffo, new economy anticipated late s is arriving utterly unexpected ways Kevin Kelly Next Digital Years Since mid Kevin has been creating, reporting on, digital future His focus long term social consequences technology book, THE INEVITABLE Understanding Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future, grand synthesis his Lawrence Alan born August , an American financial analyst former television host serving Director National Economic Council under President Donald Trump since began career junior Federal ReserveHe soon left government work Wall Street Paine Webber Bear StearnsSuperforecasting Tetlock Annenberg University Professor Pennsylvania holds appointments psychology science departments Wharton School He wife, Barbara Mellers, co leaders Good Judgment Project, multi year study also author Expert Political with Aaron Belkin Expert How Is It judgment sounds oxymoron, but only because groundbreaking research shows that experts no rest Overcoming Bias Quiz Fox Hedgehog I great book months ago insight nature bias error Judgement, TetlockOne The Hedgehog Wikipedia External Kristof, Nicholas D March Learning Think, NY TimesReport uses fox hedgehog parable economics window tax open shut case Times Why Jim Yong Kim move shaken World Bank China hawks fear will yield trade war Odey homes UK assets ahead key Brexit vote Interest ISIS Attack Accelerate Syria Pullout Hunter DeRensis Re Opening Kaesong Industrial Zone Would Give North Korea Something Nothing Robert Gulf States Home Normal pH Report value proposition aim our regular published provide clients global perspective evolving economic issues often through uniquely well placed lens chemical industry excellent correlation IMF data recognised best leading indicator us when Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

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